Poll Shows GOP CA Senate Minority Leader in Razor-Thin Race Against Local Democratic Businesswoman

SAN DIEGO, CA - Today, a new poll was released by FM3 Research illustrating a razor thin race between Republican State Senate Minority Leader Patricia Bates and Democratic businesswoman Marggie Castellano in the race for California State Senate District 36.

In 2016, Donald Trump lost in Senate District 36 by 2-points, despite the district's sizable Republican registration advantage. Looking ahead to the upcoming November 2018 election, a poll by FM3 Research shows that Democrat Marggie Castellano is within striking distance of Republican Senator Bates.

To view the poll memo, click here.

Among the key specific findings of the survey are the following:

  • Despite her incumbency, relatively few votes are familiar with Bates. Most SD 36 voters are unfamiliar with Patricia Bates, as illustrated in Figure 1 below.
  • About one in five voters view her favorably, while one in ten have a negative perception of her. 
  • Bates initially leads Castellano by just four points, and receives support from less than half of voters. 

Overall, 47 percent of all voters indicate they would vote for Bates for State Senator if the November election were held today. However, Castellano is not far behind, receiving the support from 43 percent of all voters, while ten percent are unsure. This represents a further narrowing of the margin in the race from the primary election where Bates led Castellano by just eight points.

After messaging, Castellano moves into the lead in the race. After receiving balanced, positive messaging about both candidates, support for Castellano increases by six percentage points, moving her to a three- point advantage.

"It's clear Sen. Bate's track record of failure and obstruction in the Senate has soured the voters on her, and Democrats have a phenomenal candidate in Marggie Castellano. It's clear that no Republican, not even the Republican leader in the State Senate with a solidly Republican district, is immune to the wrath of voters who are disgusted by the corruption and incompetence of Republican elected officials across the board." 

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